CONCACAF-USMNT

Stats First. Explanations below.

1. Aggregate Rank (Is My Team Any Good?)

CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying?
CONCACAF WCQ Aggregate Rankings (10.7.17)

 

2. Goal Differential (Does My Team Have a Good Offense or Defense?)

CONCACAF Top Offense and Defense
CONCACAF Goal Differential

 

3. Top Offenses (Where Is My Team Good on Offense?)

CONCACAF WCQ Three Factors
CONCACAF Offenses with Three Factors

 

4. Top Defenses (Where Is My Team Good on Defense?)

CONCACAF WCQ Top Defenses with Three Factors

words and explanations below

1. Aggregate Rank Explanation (Are the USMNT, Canada, and Mexico Any Good?)

Do you want to know objectively how good the USMNT is compared to their peers in CONCACAF? If not, are you curious about Canada and Mexico? We can answer this pretty basic question. The Aggregate Rankings are used to determine where the USMNT, Canada, and Mexico compare to others.

How does one use this page to understand the USMNT, Mexico, and Canada?

  • Start with the Aggregate Rankings – Go simple. Does your favorite national team in CONCACAF have a red, yellow, or green color? What is their overall rank, and what other teams are ahead of them or behind them?
  • What is your favorite CONCACAF team’s Points Per Match (PPM) Rank? Compared to their peers, where does your favorite CONCACAF team rank overall for points per match? Where are the USMNT, Canada, and Mexico?
  • Is your favorite CONCACAF team under-rated or over-rated? Again, go simple. Is the over/under rating green or red? Does the aggregate rank match closely to the current PPM Rank? Is there a big discrepancy? If your team has a large positive (green) number, then you may be poised for some improvement. If there’s a large negative (red) number, be concerned that your team may have over performed its current points earned. Ask yourself why by looking at the other pages.

Please explain how the Aggregate Rankings Work for the USMNT, Canada, and Mexico

For these soccer stats, I take the rank of each team’s goal differential (which is goals scored per game minus goals allowed per game) and then average it with their Three Factors rank. The Three Factors are a simple model based on high-level stats, but they can share a lot of useful information quickly. Let’s say that a team has an Aggregate Rank of 1.5. They rank #2 on goal differential and #1 on the Three Factors rank. The average comes out to 1.5. If this team ranks #1 in PPM, then this team is overvalued on the aggregate rankings by -0.5.

This is the starting point for looking at the USMNT, Canada, Mexico, or their opponents in CONCACAF. Want to dig in further? Ask yourself the following two questions:

2. Goal Differential (Does My Team Have a Good Offense or Defense?)

Offense and Defense

  • Goals Scored (Rank) – Does your team have a good offense (rank 1-5), a bad offense (ranked lower), or are they somewhere in the middle?
  • Goals Allowed (Rank) – This is the same question for team defense.

Offense and Defense are great for quickly understanding your team. With this page, you can get a quick snapshot of the overall strength of your team (total goal differential), and then how well your team is doing on offense and defense.

3. Where Is My Team Good (or Bad)?

I view the Three Factors as a second level analysis after looking at Goals Scored, Goals Allowed, and overall Goal Differential. Want to know why your team is crap at scoring goals? Take a look at their offensive ranking for shot quantity, shot quality, and finishing. One (or more) of those is probably ranked pretty low.

Want to know why your team defense is great at not allowing goals? Take a look at the defensive ranking for quantity, quality, and finishing.